Science Explains: Best Way To Make A Critical Decision!
There are different ways to categorize people: old and young, poor and rich, us and them. Or let's take things to an extreme: 97% of the people who could solve algebra problems or 3% people who can't solve algebra problems.
Or the ones who could develop good strategies and the ones that couldn't!
What would you do when you need to develop a strategy? How do you think and what is the basis of your decision? Would you like to find out whether you are a talented strategist or not?
1. Firstly, it should be noted that it is not easy to define people as good or bad decision makers. The past experience is not a criteria in that process.
Overall intellectual level, profession or expertise can be counted as valuable factors in decision making process. However, it can be said the higher position does not bring forward a guaranteed strategic thinking process. How about the structure of thought?
2. It is known for a fact that decision making process prioritize the feeling of trust.
Do you think there is a significant difference between a sudden decision and a decision that took a long incubation process?
Or the other way around, the person who couldn't make sure of their decision after a long thinking process or the person who doesn't feel comfortable after making a sudden decision?
3. Suppose that we are going to apply the solutions of decision makers to a strategy problem.
This could be anything from game strategy, brand competition or pricing a product.
We should ask these people how long it took for them to find a good solution and how certain they are from the final decision.
4. Well, actually there is already an example: Mark Chussil's Top Pricer Tournament.
Mark Chussil is a global business strategist and management consulting who is currently teaching Advanced Competition Strategies at Portland College.
Let's have a look at the participants of this tournament: The participants include managers, consultants, professors and students. Chussil gave all of the participants a pricing strategy problem that they have never encountered.
Dozens of people claimed that they are certain of their strategies after making instant decisions. While dozens claimed that they can only make big decisions after a long incubation process. You can check out the tournament report here.
5. This way it is possible to categorize decision making process:
What does these boxes mean? It is actually self-explanatory. These boxes indicate to the thinking processes of the people.
6. Let's analyze these categories one by one: “I already know" people.
These people are usually certain of their sudden decisions.
7. "I don't know"
These people tend to think about their decision for a long time and keep their suspenseful attitude throughout. It should be noted that these people are usually younger ones. Moreover, more than half of these people are women. This is comparatively higher than other categories.
8. "Now I know" people
These people could only make sure of their decision after a long incubation process. These people tend to be older ones.
9. Final category is the "I guessed" people.
It can be said that these people don't go forward unless they are certain from their answers. This behavior is believed to the core characteristic of strategists.
10. Now it's time to make your guess: Which one of those decision making processes perform best as a pricing strategy?
The best performing group was the ones who are claiming 'I don't know'.
11. This is a surprising result! It might be caused from being older. Our self-confidence increase within time however the case might not be the same for our skillls.
Your decision might also vary according to your gender. Women and men tend to make different decisions due to their current condition.
Although, there are not enough date to evaluate these differences properly, these examples indicate to a rough result.
Nevertheless, the success of 'I don't know' people is a considerable signifier for raising better strategists.
12. Another case example: A new assistant manager gathers 30 directors for a war-strategy game.
Directors find the game fun but time-consuming at the same time. All of them state that they have already known the answers and they do not have another options.
Later on, when they had to recreate their own business and rivals, these people realize that the answers they claimed 'I already know' does not work in any case. After this, directors eventually start to think about new possibilities.
13. This situation does not stem from their incapabilities but rather from being overly self-confident.
When you think you already know the answer, you might think that reconsidering over this problem is a waste of time. It almost feels like keep on looking for the keys you've already found.
14. In short, if you are planning to build up a strategy in any scenario, remind yourself to slow down.
Slowing down has two meanings in this context:
1-Don't rush.
2-Don't be so sure even if you are not rushing.
This is the key distinction between making good and bad decisions...
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