Gold Rebounds After Dip as Critical 9-Day Calendar Begins
On September 22, the price of gold per ounce dipped below the $4,300 mark, reaching as low as $4,291, but it didn't maintain this level for long. The price bounced back above $4,360 on the same day and has managed to hold steady above this level into the morning of September 23. Investors now face a busy 9-day schedule of data releases, ranging from unemployment claims to non-farm payroll figures. Each figure on this schedule will play a crucial role in determining whether gold can surpass the critical threshold of $4,400 per ounce.
Gold Dipped Down to $4,291, Then Soared Above $4,360
The gold market experienced a sharp movement in the middle of the week. The price per ounce dropped to as low as $4,291 in the transactions on September 22, slipping below the closely watched $4,300 threshold by investors. However, this decline was not permanent; the price rebounded later in the day, climbing back above $4,360.
As of the morning of September 23, gold is maintaining its hold around $4,360. According to market observers, this movement indicates that a downward break has not yet been confirmed despite rising bond yields and a strengthening dollar. Accordingly, $4,400 will continue to be the first significant resistance point for gold in the coming days.
Now, the question on the market's mind is this: Is this sharp turnaround the beginning of a new upward wave, or merely a temporary reaction? Clues to the answer are hidden in the critical US data to be announced in the next 9 days.
Fed Hikes by 25 Basis Points: Market Prices in Additional Interest Rate Increase
The most significant pressure on gold continues to come from the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Last week, the Fed decided to increase the policy rate by 25 basis points, elevating it to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent. Markets are now trying to price in whether there will be another rate hike following this move.
Strong employment figures, high inflation or resilient consumer data could push up bond yields and the dollar, thus limiting the maneuvering space for gold, which does not yield interest. On the other hand, clear signs of a slowdown in growth or employment could have the power to reverse the current pricing.
Despite short-term pressures, there is no noticeable exodus from gold among large investors. In August, global gold funds saw an inflow of $18 billion, and the total physical gold assets of the funds reached a record level of 4,189 tons. Standard Chartered predicts an average of $4,650 per ounce for gold in the last quarter of the year, while UBS maintains its 12-month target at $5,400.
Critical 9-Day Calendar: From Unemployment Applications to Non-Agricultural Employment
The calendar's first test is coming up on September 24-25. Weekly unemployment benefit claims and new home sales will be announced on Thursday, while durable goods orders for August will be revealed on Friday. The recent drop in weekly claims to 196,000 had indicated that the U.S. labor market is still resilient.
The real rush starts in the middle of next week. The JOLTS job openings to be announced on September 29 and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for August coming a day later are among the indicators closely watched by the Fed. The final big hurdle on the calendar will be the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on October 2; this data could be one of the key factors determining the price at which gold will enter October.
In terms of technical outlook, the short-term battle is intensifying in the $4,300-$4,400 range. If there is sustained movement above $4,400, $4,500 could come back into play, while the $4,235 area will be watched if $4,290 is lost. On the gram gold side, the pricing around approximately 6,850 TL will continue to be determined by the dollar/TL exchange rate as well as the price of gold per ounce.
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