2027 Pension Expectation Clear: Expert Gives Raise Rates for SSK and Bag-Kur
For years, over 20 million civil servants and retirees, who have been struggling to make ends meet under the pressure of high inflation, have set their sights on the salary update to be made in January. The shock of the 'negative update' of 4.24% in July laid bare the fact that those with fixed incomes even fell below the official inflation rate. So, what will the end-of-year inflation forecasts and the promise given by the Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Şimşek, reflect on the pockets of civil servants and retirees in January? SGK expert İsa Karakaş has revealed the retiree raise 2027 table.
In July, there was a negative adjustment of 4.24 percent for civil servants and retirees.
The greatest nightmare for civil servants and retirees in Turkey is to face a salary adjustment that is even below the official inflation announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) due to the collective bargaining system. Fixed income earners, who received updates below the official inflation for three consecutive periods during the previous collective bargaining period, faced a similar situation this year as well.
While the cumulative inflation for the six months of July was announced as 17.76%, the update made for civil servants and retirees remained only at 13.52%. Thus, a 'negative adjustment' was applied, which is even 4.24 points below the official inflation. The data for July and August announced by TURKSTAT after this clarified the picture: With the inflation announced as 1.78% in July and 1.84% in August, the cumulative rate for two months remained at 3.65%. For an inflation difference to occur, this rate needs to exceed the 7% threshold in the collective agreement; since the rate remains below this threshold for now, no additional increase can be mentioned, but the 5% collective agreement update is guaranteed.
What will the retirement pension amount be? The table has been revealed!
The government has upwardly revised its inflation targets in the Medium-Term Program (MTP) and the figures revised by the Central Bank. According to the forecasts of national and international organizations, it is strongly anticipated that the year-end inflation will be around 30 percent.
In line with this forecast, the legal update rates to be implemented in January are also taking shape: An average update of around 10 percent, ranging between 9.5 and 10.5 percent, is expected for the pensions of SSK and BağKur retirees. For civil servants and retired civil servants, the expectation is being shaped at an average level of 8 percent, within a range of 7.5 to 8.5 percent.
If Mehmet Şimşek's word is to be trusted, a 10% raise is guaranteed.
If the promise of 'no increase below inflation' previously given by the Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Şimşek, is fulfilled, civil servants and retired civil servants may receive the same rate of adjustment as SSK and BağKur members in January. In this scenario, the adjustment rate for retired civil servants could rise to around 10% instead of 8%, with an additional 2 points.
SSK expert İsa Karakaş made the following statements:
'Should the promise of 'no increase below inflation' given by the Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mr. Mehmet Şimşek, be fulfilled, civil servants and their retirees will receive the same rate of adjustment as SSK and BağKur members in January. In this case, the salary adjustment will occur at around 10% instead of 8% with an additional 2 point increase.'
Will there be an across-the-board raise and a welfare share?
Signals emanating from the political corridors of Ankara indicate a shift in favor of retirees and employees. The demands relayed by party organizations and deputies to the government have increased for retired civil servants who have not received a flat-rate pay increase for three years; the question 'if not now, when?' is frequently voiced in the corridors. Fluctuations in energy prices caused by global conflicts, on the other hand, keep the uncertainty alive regarding whether the year-end inflation will exceed the 30 percent threshold.
Isa Karakas had the following to say regarding the flat-rate increase:
'We can confidently state that the winds blowing from the corridors of Ankara are evolving in favor of retirees and employees.
Employees and retirees who have been tightening their belts extremely for three years are out of remedies. Party organizations and deputies constantly present this situation to the government. The question 'If not now, when?' is loudly voiced in the corridors.
For the retired civil servant who has not been given a flat-rate increase for three years, this January is a critical turning point.'
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