Mega El Nino Approaching: First Event Since 1877
Turkey could face the most powerful El Nino effect of the last 150 years in 2027. Prof. Dr. Doğan Yaşar, a member of the Climate Change Working Group of the Turkish Academy of Sciences (TÜBA), announced that this process, which he referred to as 'Mega El Nino', would manifest itself with heavy rainfall starting from the second half of October. Yaşar pointed out that a similar scenario last occurred in 1877. The expert, reminding that the World Meteorological Organization has raised the probability of a super El Nino to 90%, issued a critical warning for many cities, with Istanbul being at the forefront.
The first half of 2026 saw a record-breaking rainfall, the real impact of which will be felt in 2027.
Professor Doğan Yaşar, a member of the Climate Change Study Group of the Turkish Academy of Sciences (TÜBA), reminded us that the rainfall record for the first six months of 2026 was broken across Turkey, and stated that the main impact of the mega El Nino will emerge in 2027. Highlighting the rarity of the event, Yaşar said, 'The last time we witnessed a mega El Nino was back in the 1870s.'
According to experts, while the normal El Nino effect increases the sea water temperature by approximately 1 degree, this rise reaches 12 degrees in a super El Nino, and exceeds 2 degrees in a mega El Nino. Looking at the data from 2023, the average rainfall in Europe and Turkey had exceeded the average by 12%; The World Meteorological Organization also intensified its warning by raising the possibility of a mega El Nino from 40% to 90%.
"We're in for some heavy rainfall."
Yaşar indicated that 'truly splendid rains' are expected from the second half of October, stating:
'We are going to experience tremendous rainfall. Truly splendid rains are anticipated after the second half of October. The World Meteorological Organization has also been issuing warnings about the Mega El Nino since last April. While the probabilities were initially around 40%, they have now risen to the 90s. We are waiting to see where and how its impact will strike, but if I were to speak for Europe and Turkey, I believe we will receive wonderful rainfall and go through a fantastic period.'
The water level in Tahtali Dam has dropped to 46%, while Gordes Dam has decreased to 30%.
The anticipated rainfall brought by the Mega El Nino offers a glimmer of hope for regions grappling with drought. While the Tahtalı Dam, which provides water to Izmir, is at a filling rate of 46%, this rate has dropped to 30% in the Gördes Dam. Prof. Dr. Doğan Yaşar emphasized that the expected rainfall could reverse this situation, stating, 'We won't face a water problem in Turkey until 2035.'
The expert pointed out that the Mega El Nino process will not only bring rainfall, but could also cause significant changes in temperature balance. Climate scientists stressed that such extreme weather events will become more frequent with global warming, thus both local governments and citizens need to take precautions against potential flood and flood risks:
'We won't face a water problem in Turkey until 2035. At least 78 years of the next decade will see average or above-average rainfall. Therefore, we won't suffer from water shortage. Before the upcoming Mega El Nino, our main dam, the Tahtalı Dam, is currently about 46% full. The Gördes Dam, which is 50% larger than Tahtalı, is at the level of 30%. These are serious figures. There's really a nice amount of water accumulated. This year, these rates will increase even more. They might even reach levels of 70-80%.'
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